The take-aways from this month’s meeting were, subject to correction of course!
Global Macro
Interest rates are likely to be steady for the year.
Watch the differential of the use of QE globally.
Inflation variously between 1 and 2 % cross reference QE above.
Unemployment in developed countries at 5% or so wage inflation suppressed for a while in those countries
With China growth and Covid recovery expect industrial production to rise and markets following the commodities which are already moving up.
China and USA likely to be positive although some sentiment to UK cheapness of equities but stock picking to the fore.
Asia with its Low Covid19; with Japan quietly getting along dependent to some extent on the Olympics this year.
Caution on the tightening Chinese financials.
Budget UK support vs tax reclaim are the obvious tensions.
Generating client Income circa 4%+
spreadsheet 5% on UK blue chips e.g. L&G 7%, Merchants trust, Imps 9%
Forward themes, including post C19 are to stay diversified.
Recent new money has a very high cash position on the surface, initially, while opportunities arise to place the assets at a low place in their individual price curves.
The expectation is that by Q3 the cash position is likely to be in the teens, obviously depending upon our reading of the world in the meantime.
Our K portfolios well placed on the forward thematics especially in a recovery phase.
Running year to date portfolios greatly outperforming the Indecies.
If an investor needs money from their portfolios in the next year or so, taking some now would not be the worst idea.
Jeremy Marsh
MD